ISRAEL: Netanyahu Besieged, From Within and Without

• Analysis by Pierre Klochendler (jerusalem)
• Monday, September 05, 2011
• Inter Press Service

The 'Israeli summer' refuses to abate even as a strategic alliance with Turkey is beyond the brink of divorce, and another, with Egypt, is tested by terror — all compounded by the Palestinian bid for U.N. recognition as a state beginning Sep. 20.

This weekend, in what was the largest demonstration in their country's history, close to half a million Israelis hit the streets, carrying placards reading, 'Netanyahu, you're fired', and chanting in unison the grassroots movement's motto, 'The people demand social justice'.

Student Union Chairman Yitzik Shmuli addressed Netanyahu directly: 'The new Israelis have a dream — to weave their lives into Israel. But they expect you to let them live honourably,' he harangued the multitude, receiving an ovation which Netanyahu would dream to get.

Indeed, honour, patriotic stamina and national aspirations are Netanyahu's quicksand these days, wherever his careful steps guide him.

And so, his hesitant rejection of a demand by Turkey — once Israel's strategic ally in the Muslim world — that Israel issue a full 'apology' over last year's assault of a Turkish ship bound for besieged Gaza, in which nine Turkish activists were killed, sunk any prospect of reconciliation.

Over the weekend, Turkey announced a series of punitive measures, including the ejection of Israel's ambassador and the downgrading of representation to the level of second secretary; the suspension of all military agreements, a promise to support lawsuits by the families of those killed against the perpetrators; the intention to appeal to the International Court of Justice against the legality of the Israeli-imposed blockade and to initiate a U.N. debate on the issue; and, the planning of a visit to Gaza by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Alarmingly, the daily Hurriyet reported that Turkish warships would escort vessels carrying humanitarian aid shipments to Gaza.

Netanyahu retorts that the commandos acted in 'self-defence'. His line of defence is that an apology would be tantamount to eroding Israel's strategic standing at a time of regional instability. Compensation and 'regrets' for the loss of lives should have sufficed.

The crisis culminated two days prior the 'half-million march'. Postponed several times to allow the 'friends-foes' countries to find the appropriate play of word that would allow them to swallow their pride and mend their relations, a UN committee review of the raid was 'leaked' to the New York Times, though its content was well-known beforehand.

Unusually supportive of Israel, the review stated that the Israeli commandos, who had eventually foiled the 'Peace Flotilla' attempt to break the naval blockade on Gaza, 'met organised and violent resistance by a group of passengers', and used force, albeit 'excessive and unreasonable', for their own protection. It also found that the blockade was 'legal'.

By and large, the Turkish move was also foretold. That may explain why Netanyahu preferred the proud tactic that sums up as, 'Better live with remorse (over the botched action) than with regrets (over his refusal to apologise).'

Yet, precisely, two week ago, he instructed his closest ally, Defence Minister Ehud Barak, to apologise over the inadvertent killing of five Egyptians soldiers by Israeli troops engaged in a hot pursuit against guerrillas from Gaza. The guerrillas had infiltrated the Sinai desert into Israel and killed eight Israelis near what was, only six months ago, a most peaceful border.

The incident nonetheless triggered Egyptian demands to expel the Israeli ambassador. Alluding to the symbolic tearing down of the Israeli embassy flag and subsequent raising of the national colours by a demonstrator, the Egyptian daily Al-Masry Al-Youm lauded the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador to Turkey with the telling headline, a 'Lesson that Turkey taught Egypt.'

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's warning, 'The 'Arab Spring' will bring about a significant enmity against Israel if it fails to change its attitude', didn’t fall on deaf ears. Turkey has hyped an already acute anxiety among Israelis as to the future of regional stability, particularly with regard to neighbouring Syria and Egypt.

Netanyahu is all too aware that the 'Arab Spring' might turn against Israel. In two weeks, President Mahmoud Abbas will unilaterally introduce the Palestinian bid for U.N. recognition of statehood. Due in October, the vote's outcome is also known in advance.

On Nov. 29, 1947, another U.N. vote had eventually led (six months later) to Israel's unilateral creation. Then, thousands and thousands of 'new Israelis' spontaneously hit the streets, dancing in circles. Netanyahu understands that the jubilation of Israel's unprecedented protest movement conjures up the first celebration of independence — and that this protest means independence from his leadership.

His prudence is increasingly interpreted as self-satisfied passivity, even paralysis. He likes to see himself as the antithesis of his predecessor who waged two inconclusive wars, one against Hezbollah in Lebanon (2006), the other against Hamas in Gaza (2008-2009). During the latest tit-for-tat escalation with Hamas in the aftermath of the attack from Egypt, Netanyahu strongly argued against an all-out incursion into Gaza, at this sensitive stage.

Still, with the U.N. target date fast approaching, Israelis are losing confidence in their leader's ability to avert war. What will he do when the Palestinians celebrate their own recognition of statehood by focusing on an occupation that is saturating itself with more settlement construction and suffocating any advent of a two-state solution?

September is now. The prevailing sense amongst Israelis is that, slowly but surely, dark days lie ahead. Terrorism is back. Exactly a year ago, the latest round of peace talks resumed, and ended lamentably over Israel's settlement policy. À la Turk, Netanyahu seems loath to agree to a last-ditch conciliatory move that would renew negotiations, and put Palestinian statehood on hold. The army is preparing for the worse.

Codenamed 'Summer Seeds', military contingency plans might sow seeds of confrontations against Netanyahu's own inclination, simply because he didn't recognise the shaping reality. Then, it might even be too late to express only regrets.

© Inter Press Service (2011) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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