POLITICS: Scant Support for U.S. Naval Forces in the Gulf

• by Nergui Manalsuren (new york)
• Monday, December 15, 2008
• Inter Press Service

World Public Opinion is a collaborative project managed by the Programme on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland, with the aim of giving voice to average citizens around the world on international issues.

According to the institution, the poll was conducted because the U.S. role in the Middle East and in the Persian Gulf in relation to the Muslim world is a critical issue whose outcome may affect countries outside the region as well.

In general, the poll found that Washington's approach to the Middle East and the Muslim world got poor grades around the world. The United States is widely viewed as disrespectful of the Muslim world.

Overall, 14 of 20 countries said it was a bad idea for the U.S. to maintain naval forces in the Gulf, with an average of 52 percent opposing it and 22 percent in support.

Respondents were sampled from China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Nigeria, Russia, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Mexico, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Kenya, Pakistan, Thailand, Ukraine, as well as publics in Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Steven Kull, the director of WorldPublicOpinion.org and PIPA, said that similar polls had been conducted in the Muslim world, but this time they wanted to include European, Asian, African, and Latin American perspectives as well.

'We polled in the Muslim world on this issue a lot, so in this poll we wanted to bring in the rest of the world to hear what they have to say, because they are very much influenced by the outcomes of this relationship. For example, the Europeans, they feel that the U.S. base is important to ensure access to oil,' he told IPS.

Asked if he had expected such widespread opposition to the presence of U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf, Kull said that he really wasn’t sure what the results would be on the U.S. bases because there are countries that benefit from protected access to oil.

'I didn't really know what to expect. I was struck by the European findings,' Kull told IPS.

Kull found it unusual that while the major purpose of U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf is to ensure the flow of oil to U.S. allies, citizens in these counties did not express strong support for the U.S. having forces there. According to him, the U.S. itself receives only about 10 percent of its oil supply from the Persian Gulf.

The poll found that in Europe, views tend to be negative. U.S. bases are opposed by a majority in Germany (52 percent) and a plurality in Italy (43 to 31 percent), while views were divided in Britain (43 percent positive and 39 percent negative) and in France (41 percent positive and 43 percent negative).

Kull also pointed out that there is a relationship between the bases and the perception of U.S. support for democracy based on focus groups that he has conducted in the Middle East.

'The people perceived the bases are there to some extent to ensure the continuation of countries or governments that are friendly to the U.S. and that is resented. They see it as a form of intervention on the part of U.S.,' he said.

The overall poll results reflected the perception that U.S. support for democracy in the Muslim world is limited to governments that cooperate with Washington.

However, not all countries were asked the same question.

Kull said that a question regarding whether 'the U.S. supports democracy in Muslim countries' was not asked in Latin American, African or Asian nations because WorldPublicOpinion.org's partners in those countries thought that many respondents would not have enough information to draw a conclusion.

'So it was limited to seven Muslim publics and five Western publics,' Kull said, pointing out that not asking these questions did not affect the results of the poll.

The majority who oppose U.S. naval bases in the Gulf were mostly in the Middle East: Egypt (91 percent,) the Palestinian Territories (90 percent,) Turkey (77 percent,) Jordan (76 percent) and Azerbaijan (66 percent).

The only countries where majorities said that U.S. naval bases in the Gulf area is a good idea were the U.S. (70 percent,) Nigeria (60 percent, including 54 percent of Nigerian Muslims,) and Kenya (53 percent).

Kull commented that 'in Africa, generally, [including] Nigeria and Kenya, there is a tendency to have a positive view of American foreign policy, to have positive view of its intentions, and to see it as kind of constructive force.'

In terms of whether Washington is genuinely seeking the creation of Palestinian state, more publics around the world believe that U.S. is not really seeking the creation of a viable Palestinian state. However, surprisingly, the poll found that only in Palestine did a majority believe that a Palestinian state is a U.S. goal (59 percent).

'Palestinians in most polling are quite negative towards United States. It's rather striking to see their results,' Kull told IPS.

Kull believes that with the growth of democracy in the world, public opinion has come to play a greater role in the foreign policy process. 'The results of the poll are definitely of use to policy makers,' he told IPS.

The poll of 21,740 respondents was conducted between Jul. 15 and Oct. 24, 2008 in 21 nations (in Iran from Jan. 13 to Feb. 9). Margins of error range from plus or minus 2 to 4 percent.

© Inter Press Service (2008) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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