CHINA: Calm Over Planned North Korean Missile Launch

• by Antoaneta Bezlova (beijing)
• Friday, March 20, 2009
• Inter Press Service

Beijing is hosting North Korea’s Premier Kim Jong Il in the middle of an escalating row between the international community and Pyongyang over its plans to launch a rocket that both the United States and South Korea have said is more likely to be a test of a ballistic missile.

Regional powers have warned that rocket launching would trigger international sanctions that could lead to the collapse of the stagnant North Korean economy and further destabilise the volatile North. But Beijing has retained its poise and continues to urge Pyongyang to cooperate with efforts to resume stalled international talks on dismantling its nuclear programmes.

'We hope that relevant parties can consider the whole situation, appropriately resolve their differences and promote the progress of the six-party talks,' Chinese President Hu Jintao told the visiting North Korean leader.

Kim is on a five-day visit that both sides have promoted as part of celebrations for the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations.

In 2006, Beijing departed from its normal restraint in dealing with North Korea when it accused Pyongyang of 'flagrantly' conducting a nuclear test, in defiance of international opinion.

North Korea, which in that year tested a nuclear weapon and unsuccessfully fired a long-range missile, is banned from engaging in any ballistic missile activity under a U.N. Security Council resolution.

This time around, Beijing is reserved because it believes that with a new U.S. administration in the White House, the North’s provocations mean nothing more than testing the waters, experts here speculate.

'The position of the North has been consistent and has not changed,' says Su Hao, an expert at the Foreign Affairs College in Beijing. 'But [U.S. President] Obama’s policy towards the North is still unclear and this uncertainty weighs on the prospects of the six-party talks.'

North Korea is seeking U.S. recognition along with massive economic aid and the dissolution of U.S.-South Korea military alliance. The U.S. has 28,500 troops in South Korea.

China is the initiator and the chair of the six-nation nuclear negotiations, which includes the U.S., North and South Korea, Japan and Russia. Under a landmark deal reached in 2007, the North agreed to dismantle its nuclear programmes in exchange for energy aid and diplomatic concessions.

But the talks broke down in December amid frictions over verification of the disarmament process. This week, Pyongyang rejected U.S. food shipments and asked aid groups to leave North Korea by the end of the month.

Air force colonel and military analyst Dai Xu sees the escalation in tensions on the Korean peninsula as a 'display of muscle' before the next round of talks.

'Both sides are trying to test each other so that when they sit together for the next round of negotiations they can have better bargaining chips,' he wrote in an opinion piece published in the ‘China Business News’ on Mar. 12.

'No matter how alarming the situation on the peninsula may appear, it will not escalate into an armed conflict. It is all about putting on a false show of strength,'' the analyst wrote.

Earlier this month, the U.S. and South Korea launched a massive joint military exercise, involving 26,000 U.S. troops, up to 50,000 South Korean soldiers and a U.S. aircraft carrier. North Korea denounced the drills, saying they 'serve as a prelude to an invasion against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).’’

In protest of the military exercises, Pyongyang cut off its last military communications channel with Seoul and ordered its troops to be ready for a war against the U.S. and South Korea. It also warned of 'merciless retaliatory blows' on the U.S. and South Korean troops in case of an invasion.

This week, the North reasserted its right to launch a satellite in space, saying Russia, Iran, India and many other countries have been pursuing peaceful space programmes, according to the country’s official Korean Central news Agency.

But Washington has warned that if the rocket turns out to be a ballistic missile fired at the U.S., it would have few qualms about shooting it down.

'If we felt the North Koreans were going to shoot a ballistic missile at us today, I’m comfortable that we would have an effective system that would meet that need,' Air Force Gen. Victor 'Gene' Renuart told a congressional hearing on Tuesday.

As North Korea’s biggest benefactor and its staunchest ally, China is looked upon to put pressure on Pyongyang to call off the rocket launch and return to the negotiating table.

But this year presents an awkward time for China to exert pressure on its neighbour. The Chinese leadership is celebrating the 60th anniversary of the founding of the communist republic and the anniversary coincides with the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea.

Pyongyang was only the second country after the former Soviet Union to recognise communist China. The two communist countries developed a keen ideological friendship and China deployed a huge army to fight alongside North Korea in the Korean War.

Even as China abandoned Stalinist economy for market reforms in the late 1970s, Beijing has remained Pyongyang's most important ally, particularly since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed the lasting alliance, telling the North Korean premier that China was willing to strengthen friendly cooperation.

'China is willing to strengthen communication and coordination between the two sides on major international and local issues,' he said, according to the Chinese state television.

© Inter Press Service (2009) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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