POLITICS: West Treats Iran's Nuclear Offer with Caution

• by Mohammed A. Salih (washington)
• Wednesday, February 03, 2010
• Inter Press Service

Ahmadinejad told Iranian state television Tuesday that it would be no problem for Iran to send its uranium abroad, to Russia and France, in exchange for nuclear fuel to operate its reactors.

'Our colleagues had proposed that the exchange of 3.5-percent (enriched) fuel with 20-percent (enriched) fuel be done in three stages, but the foreign side's view was that this was not technically possible and they were right,' he said.

Western powers had made an offer to Iran last fall, in which Iran would give 75 percent of its 3.5 percent enriched uranium to the West and in return receive nuclear fuel of 20 percent enriched uranium.

Although Iran did not respond positively to that offer at the time, saying it needed to be done in stages, Tuesday's remarks by Ahmadinejad are seen as an acceptance of the Western proposal.

The U.S. State Department spokesman demanded concrete action from Iran to follow up on Ahmadinejad's remarks.

'It's unclear what the president was referring to yesterday. I think from our standpoint, we will look for actions as opposed to just words,' said Philip Crowley, a State Department spokesman. 'We will look forward to hearing about the Iranian position through the IAEA. So — but it's — I think we're just seeking clarification through the IAEA as to whether Tehran has changed its current position.'

Iranian officials have not elaborated on the details of President Ahmadinejad's offer and it is not clear yet whether this is an official offer that Iran will present to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

'Nobody knows if it's for real. I think what he is mostly trying to do is to stave off another round of sanctions at the U.N. Security Council and other unilateral sanctions that are being planned by the U.S. and the Europeans,' said Barabara Slavin, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, during a panel discussion at the Washington-based think tank New America Foundation.

The U.S.'s European partners also reacted sceptically to Ahmadinejad's comments. The French foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, suggested Iran might be trying to 'buy time', while German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle also demanded that Iran match its words with actions.

'If that doesn't happen and it's all just tactics, the international community will agree on further measures. Then sanctions cannot be ruled out,' Westerwelle said.

Although some have expressed doubts that the Iranian government would take major decisions on the nuclear programme in its talks with the West, President Ahmadinejad appears to have partly made the statement to challenge his domestic opponents.

'Some people inside the country made noises that they (the West) will take the (Iranian) fuel and will not give us back (nuclear) fuel. We replied, so if they wouldn't give us fuel what will happen? Whose words will be proved? If they (the West) will not abide by their commitment, then it will become clear that their words were not true and... (then) our hands will be freed to do our job by ourselves,' Ahmadinejad told the Iranian state TV.

Iran's nuclear programme has been a source of controversy with the Western world as well as Middle Eastern countries, in particular Israel. They doubt Iran's nuclear activities are for peaceful energy purposes and charge that Iran is seeking a nuclear bomb.

Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected this claim and say the programme is solely geared toward peaceful purposes, such as producing electricity.

Iran's nuclear programme has increased tensions in the region as its Arab neighbours fear Tehran's influence. It has also touched off an apparent arms race as Iran's neighbours in the Gulf are becoming some of the world's leading weapons buyers. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia purchased 25 billion dollars worth of weapons over the past two years.

With the fate of talks between Iran and the West shrouded in uncertainty, the U.S. is pushing hard to convince China to agree to sanctions against Iran. Despite its previous resistance, China now seems to be going along with Western demands. That comes amid recent tensions between the U.S. and China over Washington's sale of arms to Taiwan, which China considers parts of its territory.

If Iran fails to meet Western demands, sanctions seem to be the most likely scenario for the U.S. and its allies to pursue. Despite past threats by the U.S. and Israel to use military force against Iran's nuclear installations, many analysts see that option as out of the question.

Henry Barkey and Udi Dadush, experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued in an analysis that the U.S. will not attack Iran because any military action would cause oil prices to skyrocket to over 150 dollars a barrel, plunging the world economy into a new recession.

It will also, they say, spark conflict in places like Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Israel, as Iran would seek to retaliate through groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. The gravity of the consequences of such attack on Iran, they add, means that Israel cannot afford to trigger such blowback.

© Inter Press Service (2010) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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