2012: THE YEAR OF DANGER

• by Ignacio Ramonet
• Tuesday, February 07, 2012
• Inter Press Service

In this analysis, Ramonet writes that Israeli authorities think that Iran will soon have a nuclear bomb, after which it will be too late to do anything, the balance of power in the Middle East will be irreversibly broken, Israel will no longer have uncontestable military supremacy in the region and, the Netanyahu administration believes, the existence of the Jewish state will be in jeopardy.

It is very unlikely that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz except in retaliation for an attack. The oil it exports passes through the strait and provides the country with a large proportion of its revenue. Moreover, such a move would hurt Iran's principle allies, who are backing it in its face-off against the US -especially China, which imports 15 percent of its oil from Iran.

Tensions have built to an alarming level. Foreign ministries around the world are watching a dangerous escalation that builds minute by minute and could set off a major regional conflict. This could involve not only Israel, the US, and Iran but also Turkey, which has serious ambitions in the area, Saudi Arabia, which has dreamed for decades of destroying its major Shi'ite rival, and Iraq, which could break into two parts, one Shi'ite and pro-Iranian and one pro-western and Sunni.

(*) Ignacio Ramonet is editor of 'Le Monde diplomatique en espanol'.

© Inter Press Service (2012) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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