Global IssuesPOLITICS-INDIA: Bloodshed Expected in Federal Vote - Analysts
Unlike the peaceful assembly elections in conflict-hit Indian Kashmir in 2008, this month’s federal polls here are expected to witness bloodshed given recent signs of worrisome changes in the security situation in the region.
Five-phased federal elections will start from Apr. 16 and continue until May 13, as India elects a new federal government.
In the last two weeks, seven bloody encounters have taken place between militants and the Indian security forces. More than 22 militants and 10 army personnel were killed in these clashes.
Defence officials said that most of these encounters took place along the Line of Control (LoC), a de-facto border dividing Indian Kashmir from the Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
At present, one-third of the territory is administered by Pakistan and the rest by India. Since the end of British rule over the Indian sub-continent in 1947 and its partition into the two sovereign countries of India and Pakistan, Kashmir has been a bone of contention between the two South Asian neighbours. The two have fought three full-scale wars in efforts to gain complete control over Kashmir.
Pakistan has officially declared its moral, political and diplomatic support for the freedom struggle of Kashmiris. Kashmiris on the Indian side launched an armed struggle in 1989 to seek independence from India. Over the years, this has resulted in the deaths of more than 68,000 people.
The government of India maintains that the armed struggle is backed and funded by Pakistan, which the latter denies. 'As the snow has started melting, we expect more infiltration bids on the LoC. We have tightened security along the LoC to foil any attempt by militants to cross over to this side,' said a defence spokesperson.
Observers interpret the recent increase in infiltration bids and the subsequent encounters as a message from the militants that they are going to interfere in the election process as the troubled state prepares for the phased federal elections.
'Though the militants have not issued any warning so far, it appears likely that they are in an offensive mood,' a senior journalist, who did not wish to be named, told IPS.
Addressing a press conference on Monday, the state’s newly elected chief minister Omar Abdullah said that his government was 'fully aware of the security threats' during the upcoming parliamentary elections.
'Yes we know that the militants are bracing up for disrupting the elections, but we will provide elaborate security measures for the political leaders and workers to ensure their safety,' the chief minister said. 'Following the repeated encounters between militants and security forces, I am regularly holding meetings with security officials to ensure that no casualties occur during the elections.'
In the seven-phased assembly elections that were held in the troubled state from November to December 2008, militants had not interfered. Barring a few incidents, the elections had passed off peacefully.
'Despite their presence in hundreds in the state, the militants by and large preferred not to interfere with the electoral process. Even the United Jihad Council (UJC), a joint platform of militant outfits, had formally announced that militants would not use guns to assert their viewpoint,' the senior journalist observed.
The 2008 assembly elections are rated as the most peaceful vote ever in the region, since the insurgency started. In previous elections from 1989 to 2007, as many as 690 political activists were killed in militancy-related incidents, especially those that occurred during elections.
Militants and separatist leaders in Indian Kashmir have been asserting that elections are not a solution to the Kashmir issue. Instead, they demand the holding of a referendum for determining the fate of Kashmir.
According to official figures, a voter turnout of 61 percent was recorded during the 2008 assembly elections mainly because people felt it was safe to cast their ballots. 'The mainstream political parties were encouraged by the announcement from militants and they participated without any fear,' the same journalist said.
Given this background, analysts say that the recent upsurge in the militancy-related incidents is enough indication that militants might target the electoral process later this month.
'Since the peaceful protest demonstrations were dealt with force, barring the few initial protest rallies when the region saw an abrupt uprising in August 2008 following a controversial land-transfer decision to a Hindu Shrine Board, it appears that militants might again see a role for themselves,' said Showkat Shiekh, a political commentator.
A militant outfit, Lashkar-e-Toiba, which India accuses of having carried out the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai, has already announced that it would carry out attacks on security forces in the state. Security agencies take it as an indirect threat with reference to the federal elections.
In reaction to these concerns, India’s Defence Minister A K Antony has directed the security agencies 'to deal firmly with the militants'.
'With the militants and security forces having made their intentions clear, there is every probability that the parliamentary elections would witness violence as against the assembly elections, which were passed off peacefully,' says N A Baba, who teaches political science in Kashmir University. The abrupt increase in infiltrations and encounters has also reduced the chances of any consensus in reorganising the dreaded Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA).
Recently, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah announced that he would convince the federal government to revoke that law. He also met with India’s home minister, P Chidambaram, who had assured him that the government would consider repealing it.
A repeal of the special powers act is one of the major demands of the people of Kashmir, who say that the law empowers the security forces to kill people with impunity.
The law, which marked its 50th anniversary in 2008, grants the military wide powers to arrest without warrants, shoot-to-kill, and destroy property in 'disturbed areas'. It protects military personnel from being charged with serious crimes while enforcing security measures.
Given the strong desire in Kashmir for the removal of the AFSPA and other draconian laws, Chief Minister Abdullah’s ruling National Conference is all set to make it a part of its election manifesto.
© Inter Press Service (2009) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service