Global IssuesEGYPT: Father Still Knows Best
Speculation had been rife in recent months that parliament was on the verge of dissolution by order of the presidency. While the rumour ultimately proved unfounded, local analysts say it reflected a rift between the old and new guards of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) of President Hosni Mubarak.
'War of the (old and new) guards dominates the presidential palace and the NDP,' read the Jul. 1 headline of independent daily Al-Dustour.
Talk of imminent dissolution of the national assembly emerged following two major parliament-related developments. In April, Egypt's Supreme Court issued a report questioning the parliamentary legitimacy of 86 sitting MPs. The report, which cited several reasons for its findings, still awaits discussion in the assembly.
And in mid-June, the NDP's parliamentary majority approved legislation calling for the creation of 64 new parliamentary seats reserved for women. The move will raise the number of seats in the assembly from 454 to 518.
The NDP currently has about four-fifths of the seats in parliament. The Muslim Brotherhood opposition movement has most of the rest, along with smaller secular opposition parties and independent MPs.
The twin developments fuelled speculation that the President intended to call fresh elections with the aim of bolstering the ruling party's parliamentary majority, thus further sidelining the opposition.
Egypt's parliament has only been dissolved twice in recent history, once in 1987 and again in 1990.
'In both cases, the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that previous elections had been unconstitutional,' Amr Hashem Rabie, an expert on parliamentary affairs at the semi-official Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies told IPS. 'So parliament was dissolved by order of the court, not by presidential decree.'
The independent press reported that the issue had opened a rift between the old and the new guards of the ruling party. The latter, it was whispered, was keen on fresh elections, while the former - citing the need to avoid unnecessary turmoil - was averse to taking such a far-reaching step.
The old guard, personified by Mubarak, represents the ideals of Egypt's 1952 revolution - in theory at least - which include a socialist-oriented economy and a foreign policy free of colonial influence. The new guard, embodied by Mubarak's 46-year-old son Gamal, favours a thoroughly globalised economy based on neo-liberal policies such as privatisation of state assets and strong foreign investment.
Gamal, who many believe is being groomed to replace his ageing father as president, is already both NDP assistant secretary-general and head of the party's supremely influential Policies Secretariat.
Another major point of difference lies in the fact that the old guard prefers a president with a background in the armed forces; the new guard, for its part, prefers one with a background in business. The younger Mubarak is an investment banker by profession.
'The conflict between the old and new guards over dissolution of parliament has reached the point of anxiety,' political analyst Wael Abdel-Fattah wrote in Al-Dustour Jul. 1. 'The new guard hopes to dissolve the assembly in order to stock parliament with Gamal Mubarak supporters in new elections.'
But in the first week of July, a number of statements by prominent old guardsmen appeared to pour cold water on the notion.
'President Mubarak does not think it necessary to dissolve the People's Assembly,' Parliamentary Speaker and party veteran Fathi Sorour was quoted as saying. According to the constitution, Sorour explained, the President would only dissolve parliament 'in order to prevent a clash between the People's Assembly and the government from paralysing political life.'
In an interview in the state press, NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif laid down 'three nos': 'No to dissolving the People's Assembly this autumn; no to holding parliamentary elections in 2009 instead of 2010; and no to bringing forward the presidential elections scheduled for 2011.'
Some local analysts interpreted the episode as a setback for the new guard at the hands of the old.
'Gamal Mubarak and the Policies Secretariat suffer a quick defeat as the President shoots down the idea of dissolving parliament,' Al-Dustour editor- in-chief Ibrahim Eissa wrote Jul. 12. 'Mubarak (the senior) sent a message to everyone that he is still the President and the final arbiter in all decisions touching Egypt's fate.'
According to Rabie, recent parliamentary developments - including questions over certain MPs' legitimacy and new seats reserved for women - never represented constitutionally valid reasons to dissolve the assembly. 'Nor does the ruling party feel so threatened by the parliamentary opposition that it feels the need to call early elections.'
'Under the circumstances, President Mubarak appears highly unlikely to take such a drastic step,' Rabie added. 'Judging from his previous decisions, he will probably take the course most conducive to continuity and stability.'
© Inter Press Service (2009) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service