Global IssuesVolcanic Ash Clouds May Drive Changes in Air Traffic
Iceland's volcanoes contributed to conditions that may have hastened the French Revolution, and could now speed changes in air transport, which not only is vulnerable to natural disasters but is suffering from heavy congestion of its routes in Europe.
Icelandic researchers say that based on past history, a period of higher volcanic activity has begun that may last some six decades. There could soon be another eruption, if Eyjafjalljökull awakens its even more fearsome neighbour, the Katla volcano, as has happened in the past.
Eyjafjallajökull, in southern Iceland, translates as 'island mountain glacier' and is the name of the ice field overlying the volcano.
After a number of weeks with an ash cloud covering a large portion of Europe, panic would heighten if a new eruption were to add to the chaos in aviation, whose key hub in Europe affects air travel around the world.
But decentralising the airline networks is apparently not yet seen as an urgent task.
'Everything will go back to normal' and there will be no permanent changes, because 'all airlines fly over the shortest possible routes, and Europe has efficient route structures,' Imtiaz Muqbil, the editor of the Bangkok-based Travel Impact Newswire which covers travel and tourism in Asia, told IPS.
He did acknowledge, however, that 'airport congestion in key hubs like London, Frankfurt and Paris' is a serious problem in Europe.
'Consumers, who benefit from competition between differing types of services, effectively shape the overall structure of the global aviation network,' said Andrew Herdman, director general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, based in Malaysia.
The crisis provoked by the Eyjafjallajökull eruption will undoubtedly raise discussions about new routes, but 'all airlines prefer to track routes that offer the best returns in terms of fuel efficiencies, distance, favourable winds, etcetera,' said Dale Lawrence, communications director of the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA).
'Permanent re-routing over longer distances may not prove to make economic sense. Demand is what drives new routes. It's up to carriers to assess the returns on their routes,' he added.
Brazilian aeronautical consultant Arthur Rodrigues Silva is also unconvinced that 'the Icelandic volcano will change the market,' but he admits that 'new routes may be planned if there are more eruptions' with similar effects.
Regular flight paths have never been modified before as a result of natural disasters, and airlines routinely cope with a large number of variables, including weather, he said. There are always unpredictable factors: for example, winds can alter the effects of a volcanic eruption by blowing ash clouds in a different direction, he pointed out.
In any event, the crisis in recent weeks has highlighted the excessive concentration of flights in Europe, as can be seen in these videos, one showing 24 hours of global air traffic compressed into one minute, and the second showing the same for European air traffic:
In 2006, European airports handled 476 million international passengers, 55.7 percent of the world total, according to the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Although many travellers took flights within Europe, the predominance of intercontinental flights routed through the region is clearly visible.
Asia has headed air freight services since 2006, when it had a small lead, which grew after 2008 because of the economic recession in the industrialised world.
The economic boom in countries of the South, especially China and India, could lay the foundations for expansion of air transport in the hemisphere. Air routes between Africa and Southeast Asia are looking more attractive, 'and Middle East carriers offer very competitive pricing on routes that involve a connection in cities such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi,' said PATA's Lawrence.
The Emirates airline commenced daily flights between the Brazilian city of São Paulo and Dubai in 2007, and one month ago inaugurated an international Dubai-Tokyo route, creating an alternative travel path from Brazil to Japan that avoids entering the United States, which requires a visa even for passengers in transit.
And Qatar Airways has announced daily direct flights between Doha and São Paulo, continuing on to Buenos Aires, from June.
However, Europe has a definite advantage in terms of numbers of passengers and existing infrastructure.
But a repeat episode of volcanic ash in European airspace could accelerate the development of South-South air travel, which is already expanding because of the rapid growth of the economies and trade between emerging countries.
The civil aviation industry, which employs 11.8 million people in direct and indirect jobs worldwide and carries 2.2 billion passengers a year, responds to such development, and itself promotes social and economic progress, according to the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), a coalition of industry organisations and companies.
Iceland's volcanoes erupt violently breaking through the massive glaciers that lie above them and spewing out acidic ash containing glass particles that are harmful to airplanes' jet engines. Ash clouds from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption reached mainland Europe Apr. 15, reducing visibility and leading one European country after another to ground all planes and close airports for up to six days.
In the past, livestock and crops were the main victims of volcanic eruptions in Iceland, as well as the human death toll.
In mid-1783, Iceland's Laki volcano erupted and produced toxic ash for nearly eight months, killing close to 10,000 people, one-fifth of the Icelandic population at the time, as well as livestock. The eruption altered Europe's climate for a long time, so much so that 1784 was known as 'the year without a summer.'
Losses were extensive throughout Europe and reached as far as Egypt. The total death toll was estimated at 160,000 people. In France, famine and emigration from rural areas to the towns contributed to aggravating the poverty and social tensions that triggered the 1789 Revolution.
If a similar disaster were to occur in the present globalised world, its effects can easily be imagined. Air flight is one of the most vulnerable features of globalisation, with humanity increasingly dependent on it as a means of mass transport.
Flower growers in places as far apart as Colombia and Kenya, reliant on air transport to get their produce to market, suffered enormous losses due to the Eyjafjallajökull eruption.
In Ecuador, over two million stem buds were chopped up and made into compost during the six days that flights were suspended in the Netherlands. Each day the flowers were cut and wrapped, in case the flights were resumed. Many other perishable products were also lost.
* With additional reporting by Lynette Lee Corporal and Marwaan Macan-Markar in Bangkok and Gonzalo Ortiz in Quito.
© Inter Press Service (2010) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service