Global IssuesJORDAN: Ripe for Reform, Slow to Change
Having weathered the maelstrom that engulfed the Middle East earlier this year, Jordan's government has faced simmering unrest as protesters continue to press for political and economic reforms.
The desert kingdom's ferment, which began in January, was inspired by the mass uprisings that ousted the dictators of Egypt and Tunisia. Yet despite the relatively modest demands of Jordanian protesters, their movement has yielded few concessions.
Protesters initially took to the streets to object to rising prices and unemployment, but the movement has since evolved to include demands for political reform. A chief demand is for a government elected by the people and accountable to them. Reformists also want to loosen the grip of the country's powerful intelligence service, and have campaigned for an end to nepotism and corruption.
There are calls to limit the powers of King Abdullah, who inherited the throne after the death of his father in 1999, but protesters have stopped short of calling for his downfall.
'We're not trying to overthrow or destroy the regime, just reform it,' says taxi driver Abdullah Hamdan, a Jordanian national of Palestinian descent.
While mass protests in neighbouring Egypt toppled the Mubarak regime and continue to squeeze concessions out of the ruling military council, Jordan's sparse protesters face long odds. Their regular demonstrations and marches — rarely exceeding 2,000 in number — are quickly dispersed by security forces.
Jordan's reform movement, an unlikely coalition of youth groups, leftists and Islamists, has been hamstrung by conflicting agendas and infighting. Authorities have exposed these rifts to undermine opposition.
They have also exploited the divide between 'East Bankers' who form the backbone of the country's ruling elite, and 'West Bankers' - citizens of Palestinian origin. Some East Bankers accuse the more numerous but politically disenfranchised West Bankers of attempting to wrest control of the country.
Confident the situation is contained, King Abdullah has given the nod to halting economic reforms and even slower movement toward political change. In January, the king replaced the prime minister and presided over economic measures aimed at soothing mounting anger in the streets. Another cabinet reshuffle in July brought new faces, but did not fulfil the king's pledge of a government based on an elected majority rather than royal appointment.
'People are discontent because they haven't seen any concrete results on the ground,' explains political analyst Amer Al-Sabaileh. 'The changes so far have been purely cosmetic.'
Analysts say the turmoil is likely to spread as economic conditions in the small aid-dependent kingdom continue to deteriorate, particularly in the rural south. Unemployment is estimated at 13 percent, and inflation is accelerating amid higher global food and oil prices, increasing the burden on the country's poor.
'We have an economic crisis in the making,' warns economist Yusuf Mansur. 'The government is running a record budget deficit, and the debt has reached 13 billion dinars (18 billion dollars), exceeding 65 percent of GDP.'
The longtime U.S. ally has also felt the fallout of its restive neighbours. Syria's uprising has dried up trade and smuggling conduits to the north, while militants in Egypt have repeatedly attacked a pipeline that supplies natural gas critical for power generation. The service disruption has forced the government to switch to imported heavy oil and diesel at enormous cost.
'About 90 percent of our electricity generation relies on gas,' says Mansur. 'Even before the Arab Spring we were receiving just two-thirds of the amount of gas shipped from Egypt in 2009. This year we've received less than a third, so the losses are mounting.'
Saudi Arabia has offered a one billion dollar grant to help Jordan shore up its battered economy. The government may still need to impose unpopular austerity measures to cut expenditure, which could lead to further social unrest.
Unusually high participation at recent anti-government rallies suggests the public's patience is wearing thin. While Jordan's street protest movement has paled in comparison to those of its Arab neighbours, commentators (and the regime) may be underestimating its strength.
'In Jordan, even having a few thousand people in the streets means something,' Al-Sabaileh told IPS. 'If you compare populations (Jordan has a population of less than six million, Egypt has 83 million), 2,000 protesters here might be equal to 100,000 in Egypt.'
He says frustration over the regime's perceived foot-dragging in implementing economic and political reforms has broadened reform calls into open criticism of the king himself.
Some opposition groups have demanded that Jordan establish itself as a constitutional monarchy, with the king as a figurehead. Yet most citizens appear to view the monarchy as the only real guarantee and legitimate source of stability in the kingdom, binding its volatile mix of Jordanians, Palestinians and Bedouin tribes.
'The people believe any change should come from the king himself,' says Al-Sabaileh. 'Ninety percent of complaints are delivered to the king, and we are still looking to him as our reference and a balance between the different powers.'
But unless King Abdullah delivers on promised reforms soon, the restive masses may question the legitimacy of his rule and propel the country into the turmoil sweeping other parts of the Arab world.
© Inter Press Service (2011) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service