The ‘slow onset, silent killer’: Droughts explained

Ibrahim Thiaw, the Executive Secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) was speaking at the opening of COP16 a major global conference taking place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where a new global drought regime is expected to be agreed which will promote the shift from reactive relief response to proactive preparedness.

Here’s what you need to know about droughts.

Droughts are increasing in regularity and intensity

Droughts are a natural phenomenon, but in recent decades have been intensified by climate change and unsustainable land practices. Their number has surged by nearly 30 per cent in frequency and intensity since 2000, threatening agriculture, water security, and the livelihoods of 1.8 billion people, with the poorest nations bearing the brunt.

They can also lead to conflict over dwindling resources, including water, and the widespread displacement of people as they migrate towards more productive lands.

No country is immune

More than 30 countries declared drought emergencies in the past three years alone, from India and China, to high-income nations such as the US, Canada and Spain, as well as Uruguay, Southern Africa and even Indonesia.

Droughts impeded grain transportation in the Rhine River in Europe, disrupted international trade via the Panama Canal in Central America, and led to hydropower cuts in the South America country, Brazil, which depends on water for more than 60 per cent of its electricity supply.

Firefighters were even called to an urban park in New York City, in the United States in wintry November 2024 to tackle a bush fire after weeks of no rainfall.

“Droughts have expanded into new territories. No country is immune,” said UNCCD’s Ibrahim Thiaw adding that “by 2050, three in four people globally, up to seven and half billion people, will feel the impact of drought.”

Domino effects

Droughts are rarely confined to a specific place and time and are not simply due to a lack of rainfall but are often the result of a complicated set of events driven or amplified by climate change, as well as sometimes the mismanagement of land.

For example, a hillside which is deforested is immediately degraded. The land will lose its resilience to extreme weather and will become more susceptible to both drought and flooding.

And, once they strike, they can trigger a series of cataclysmic domino effects, supercharging heat waves and even floods, multiplying the risks to people’ s lives and livelihoods with long-lasting human, social and economic costs.

As communities, economies, and ecosystems suffer the damaging effects of drought, their vulnerability is increased to the next one, feeding a vicious cycle of land degradation and underdevelopment.

Drought is a development and a security issue

Around 70 per cent of the world’s available freshwater is in the hands of people living off the land, most of them subsistence farmers in low-income countries with limited livelihood alternatives. Around 2.5 billion of them are youth.

Without water there is no food and no land-based jobs, which can lead to forced migration, instability, and conflict.

“Drought is not merely an environmental matter,” said Andrea Meza, UNCCD Deputy Executive Secretary. “Drought is a development and human security matter that we must urgently tackle from across all sectors and governance levels.”

Planning for greater resilience

Droughts are also becoming harsher and faster due to human-induced climate change as well as land mismanagement and typically the global response to it is still reactive. More planning and adaption is required to build resilience to the extreme conditions created by dwindling supplies of water and this often happens at a local level.

In Zimbabwe a youth-led grass-roots organization is aiming to regenerate land by planting one billion trees across the southern African country, while more farmers on the Caribbean island of Haiti are taking to bee-keeping in an effort to ensure that the trees those bees rely on are not cut down in the first place. In Mali, a young woman entrepreneur, is creating livelihoods and building resilience to drought by promoting the products of the moringa tree.

Experts say proactive initiatives like these can prevent immense human suffering and is far cheaper than interventions focused on response and recovery.

What next?

At COP16 countries are coming together to agree how to collectively tackle worsening droughts and promote sustainable land management.

Two key pieces of research were launched on the opening day.

The World Drought Atlas depicts the systemic nature of drought risks illustrating how they are interconnected across sectors like energy, agriculture, river transport, and international trade and how they can trigger cascading effects, fueling inequalities and conflicts and threatening public health.

The Drought Resilience Observatory is an AI-driven data platform for drought resilience created by the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA), a UNCCD-hosted coalition of more than 70 countries and organizations committed to drought action.

How much is it going to cost?

One UN estimate suggests that investments totalling $2.6 trillion will be needed by 2030 to restore land across the world which is affected by drought and poor management.

At COP16 an initial pledge of $2.15 billion was announced to finance the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership.

It will serve as a global facilitator for drought resilience, promoting the shift from reactive relief response to proactive preparedness,” said Dr Osama Faqeeha, Deputy Minister for Environment, Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture of Saudia Arabia, adding that “we also seek to amplify global resources to save lives and livelihoods around the world.”