Knife-Edge November: Teetering on the Climate Abyss

• Opinion by Farhana Haque Rahman (new york)
• Friday, November 01, 2024
• Inter Press Service

Put the air-con on too. Last year was the hottest on human record, and the planetary average for 2024 is on course to rise even further.

Floods, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and storms are already displacing millions of people across the world, and that is with average temperatures around 1.3 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels. Scientists estimate we are on a path to at least double that increase by 2100 although the Paris Agreement ‘goal' is to stick within 1.5 degrees. The world's annual emissions of greenhouse gases, CO2 and methane, have not even peaked yet.

But aren't our global leaders and their vast complex of enablers – the financiers, corporates etc – holding their year-end climate crisis huddle to tackle all this? Yes, Azerbaijan's hosting of COP29 in November means for the second year running a petro-state will be in charge of proceedings. Did you mention something about feeling alienated?

COP28 agreed vaguely last year on the need for the world to "transition away" from fossil fuels, the source of the great majority of emissions. COP29 has the main task of hardening up commitments, and agreeing on how richer countries will provide the trillions of dollars needed to help the "global south" tackle the crisis.

This new "global climate finance goal" is to come into play after 2025 and is supposed to replace the annual $100bn target set years ago that the developed world is already behind on.

Pre-COP discussions held in Bonn recently were a fraught affair. Much of the western world is already grappling with its own record high debt levels. Arguments broke out over how to define "climate finance". The definition of "up-to-date" was also on the agenda.

Geo-politics are kicking in too. How was it, European delegates asked, that China with its space exploration program and massively expensive military development (as well as being the world's largest emitter) is still able to cling to its ‘developing' country status that allows it to benefit from the UN pot rather than contribute? Why don't the fantastically rich Gulf states also contribute?

Quibbling over (admittedly meaningful) definitions does seem the contemporary equivalent of fiddling while Rome burns, a metaphor recalled by UN Secretary-General António Guterres on the eve of COP29.

"We're playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We're out of time," he said, commenting on research released by the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) warning that the world is on course for a "catastrophic" temperature rise of more than 3C above pre-industrial levels. The world's ability to remain within the target of 1.5C of global warming "will be gone within a few years" without rapid action, the UNEP stated.

"We are teetering on a planetary tight rope," said Guterres. Is anyone watching?

The numbers are extreme but exist in plain sight – the world needs collectively to slash emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 and by 57 per cent by 2035 from 2019 levels, to keep within the 1.5C threshold, according to UNEP. Instead this year they will hit a new high, although the International Energy Agency's latest annual review does predict an "imminent" peaking, possibly next year.

Although it can feel we are running hard just to slip even further down that burning precipice, the tectonic plates of energy trends are shifting however. The International Energy Agency pronounces encouragingly we are entering the ‘age of electricity', driven by a surge in solar power.

Electricity generated from solar power alone is seen quadrupling between 2023 and 2030. Solar may overtake nuclear, hydro and wind by 2026, overtake gas in 2031 and then coal by 2033. Clean electricity is seen pushing coal power down by a third by 2035.

The direction of travel is clear, but it has come far too late and the pace is still far too slow. The good news is that plummeting costs of solar power – in part thanks to China – are enabling the global south to move much more rapidly towards clean energy and shun the siren calls of the corporate dinosaurs of fossil fuels.

But even before COP29 participants settle into their Baku conference seats on November 11, the knife-edge month will begin with that elephant in the ante-chamber – the US presidential election.

A victory for Donald Trump could lead (again) to US withdrawal from international climate action. Analysis by Carbon Brief researchers shows a return of Trump could lead to an additional four billion tonnes of US emissions by 2030 compared with Joe Biden's existing plans. That's equal to combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan.

That sense of deep malaise and alienation many of us feel about our planet's existential crisis, exacerbated by horrendous conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, seems to be shared by many US voters about their lot in life. Polls show a record share of three quarters of registered voters believe the next generation won't be better off.

How can we change the messaging? Trump has channelled deep-seated anger and frustration towards his own blinkered and narcissistic ends. The purveyors of ‘hope' have perpetuated decades of time lost. Can we accept – defiantly not passively – that this is going to be an epic struggle of many long hard battles? They may already be lost but we can recognize the glory in not giving up.

Farhana Haque Rahman is Senior Vice President of IPS Inter Press Service and Executive Director IPS Noram; she served as the elected Director General of IPS from 2015-2019. A journalist and communications expert, she is a former senior official of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

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© Inter Press Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

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